Commodities Zone Summary

GOLD

Gold is up 10 % for last 2 months!

When was the last time we saw gold trading at these high levels, yes it was in August 2013

Nearly after 6 years gold has broken the range

Will it sustain above this or is it a trap – No one knows!

Let us understand Gold Journey from 2007!

In the year, 2007 January Gold was trading at 9250

By December 2012 Gold reached upto 30900!

Gold was in GOLDEN RUN!

Everyone were crazy to buy GOLD at these time!

The best or worst Part –I don’t know – we still love gold any day of the year!

But irony is investors who were not aware of gold price movement came to gold markets and got stuck by buying at the end of peak cycle in 2011 and 2012

The Investors who had bought in 2007 to 2009 made a huge return!

2013, 2014, & 2015 gold prices saw downfall, finally at the end of 2015 gold was at 25000

From 2016 -2019 till half yearly June 30th 2019 Gold is scrawling upside slowly!

However Investors who had bought gold 2012-2013 after 8 years –yes they are happy gold is moving northwards! Have they made return – BIG NO!

But think like this – investors who had bought in 2015 around 26000 to 27000 price are the happiest lot of investors!

Timing is very important in markets!

Disclaimer –Nobody in the world can time exact price to buy or sell!

Current price gold -34206

SILVER

Silver is UP 3 % for the month

After last 4 months of downfall, we have seen silver bit steady and closed upside for this month

History of Silver!

2007 to 2008 Silver was in the range of 15000 to 25000

At the end of 2008 silver had closed around 18000

2009, 2010 and 2011 Silver had a massive run upwards

From 18000 to 73000!

Ask your parents, elders how craze people on buying silver those days!

By December 2012 Silver closed around 57500!

2013 to 2015 – 3 years silver from 59500 came upto 32500 levels

Last 4 years Silver is in Sideways range of 35000 -40000

Current price in silver -37452

Investors who had bought at 2011 and 2012 are stuck from 8 years in Silver!

CRUDE

Next Major Commodities which has a huge impact for INDIAN Economy is Crude

Lookback on Crude!

2007 January 2850

2008 Financial Crisis Peaked, so to crude –it reached upto 6350, finally saw Southwards direction upto 1750!

Whenever Crude prices falls It’s Advantage INDIA!

However 2009, upto 2013 Crude peaked upto 7750, but closed at 6100 odd in 2013

2014 –Lady Luck was with Modiji – Crude fell downside from 6500 to 2250 by 2015

In the year 2016 it even made low of around 1800 –but closed the year around 3600

2017 and 2018 were sideways for crude – made high of 5600 odd last year

Do you remember petrol price had moved upto 80 to 85 rs per litre last year! This was the reason!

This year from January crude from 3200 to today’s price of 4000 it’s on upward biases

With US pressure on INDIA to cut import from IRAN!

Need to see how crude reacts in next few months upto year end!

Current Price is 4100

Sagar U.S

Small aim is a Crime

June Month Global & Indian Markets Update

Global Markets Update for June 2019

I could have written – US markets are up and all Asian markets and European markets are UP for the June 2019

Have taken the Pain, so that you know the Index name and from next few months down the line you do it yourself!

US Markets

Dow Jones

Dow Jones Index after seeing downside of 7 % in May, as taken a complete U turn in June –it’s a 7.5 % Upside for the month

It has closed at an all-time high of 26672 Price

With Trade War – Interest rate cut in US by Federal Reserve, G20 Meet

US Markets are trading near 18 month high!

European Markets

UK markets (FTSE) is UP 4 % for the month

France markets (CAC) is UP 6.5 % for the month

Germany markets (DAX 30) is UP 6 % for the month

Asian markets

China Shanghai is UP 2.5%

Japanese Markets (Nikkei) up 4.5 % for the month

Singapore Markets (Straits Times) up 6.5 % for the Month

Hong Kong (Hang Seng) up 6 % for the month

Taiwan Index is up 2 %

South Korea Kospi Index is up 4.5 %

Thailand Index SET is 6.5%

Australia S&P ASX is up 4.5 %

Time to Think – INDIA INDEX

Nifty is down 1.5 % for the month

Sensex is down 1 %

Bank Nifty is down 1 %

Major Events

US GDP for 1st Quarter was at 3.1 %

UK GDP was at 1.8 % for the 1st Quarter

Next Week

US markets would be off for a day on account of their Independence Day

Coming to Our Markets (India)

4th July Economic Survey would be released

5th July Budget

From 1st to 5th Automobile Sales data

PMI Manufacturing and Service data would be released

G20 Event Reaction would be on Monday

India’s current account deficit (CAD) widened to $57.2 billion, or 2.1% of GDP, in FY19 from 1.8% a year ago, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Friday, amid a general slowdown in the economy.

CAD is one of the key indicators of an economy’s health and measures the difference between the value of the goods and services a country imports and the value of its exports

India also reported a fiscal deficit of ₹3.66 trillion during the first two months of the current financial year

The Centre has pegged fiscal deficit—the difference between the government’s revenue and expenditure—at 3.4% of the GDP for this fiscal year, the same as in 2018-19

On July 5th – Major Data to look is Fiscal Deficit!

Index is trading at high levels, however there are number of stocks trading way below their high price

Always Track Few Stocks and Expertise

Trade From Savings Money

Trade Less

Invest Regularly

Sagar U.S

Small Aim is A Crime