BANKNIFTY BLACK SWAN CURIOSITY FROM NOV 5TH 2018-NOV 5TH 2019- part 2

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Disclaimer – This curiosity is for my learning, it’s not a prediction, to be honest – I just want to check how my prediction /intuitions works!

Do follow your advisor and have your own opinion!

BNF trading @ 25660 now at 11 am, 5th Nov 2018

My illusion says “27000” is the magic number for the next 1 year

  1. Extreme correction for bnf would be up to 14-17% in the first phase

Second phase 19-23 %, from there on I don’t know

By the way, I don’t know whether there would be a correction in the first place?

if I am on the bear side from today levels i.e  stop loss of 5 %

however, if we get an opportunity around 26400-26800, that would be an ideal place to be with bears camp

stop loss would be then 2-4  % fo the return of 14-17 % -19-23%

For that strategy, I want bnf too go up from today and make highs till 26500-27000-27500-28000, but bnf should not close above 26880 for at least 2 months!

Markets are not one side, so I am also not on one side, I have another black swan ready 

2. To be bullish, I want BNF to close above 27280 for at least 2-3 months, by doing so

I can expect bulls to move at least 9- 12-15 % from 27280, keep a stop loss @ 2 %

 

But, this is not how  markets operate,bnf would rise and fall and fall and rise and rise and fall and rise and rise and rise and fall and fall and huge fall

Confusing right, that’s how markets operate

simple conclusion

the tape as of today is giving bears have an upper hand, as it is below 27000, but anytime bulls can have the upper hand

what’s my strategy – this is my Diwali black swan – happy to be wrong and also correct

if I am correct -it’s pure luck

if I am wrong – proves me markets and humans can’t be predicted!

If BNF closes below 25390 for some days I would turn bearish side, and  below 24660,  close for some days- confirmation markets would crash an unexpected time

IF BNF closes above 26330 for some day, i would turn bullish and above 27280 close for some days – confirmation markets would start upwards move

Another black swan is, markets may trade in a range between 23000-26000

Breakout of either would provide 7-9 % returns

Last black swan is it would trade in a range of 24660-25390-26330-27280

already it has touched 24660- now as of today trading at 25660 and has crossed the second level too -will it touch 3rd levels or it won’t I don’t know

One black swan is, have a huge payoff opportunity

Sagar U.S

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bank Nifty Curiosity 2018

BNF trading now at 25660, has passed psychological level of 25390

Now what, may test 25920 to 26000 today

Or may be close around 25400 to 25500

Disclaimer only for today!

Probability of former is more than later, provided no uncertain events

Now, let’s see for entire month to first half of December(15)

With festival euphoria, street may touch higher levels today best case or on Tuesday ,again i may be wrong!

26000 to 26350 to 26660 to 26880 is the next frontier for bulls for next 35 days

Close above 26880 for the monthly expiry by November and 1st half of December, shows bulls in control and how other variables at the point will give a clue for further movements

Close below 26350 is what bears would like to see by November to early part of December

Above 26880, Bears will feel frightened, above 27440 for 2 weeks by December expiry, Bears would have lost this year battle!

Contest is very much interesting now, bulls above 24680 is moving towards his destined journey, if it can take off 26000

They are in control for further movement upto 26880 to 27440 with lots of ups and downs they may reach

If they touch with out fight, then there is a story to be understood

For me, the best 2 trades are available in next few weeks,or months, need to keep patience and cash to counter the moves

25390 below bulls would become nervous and how they react would give a clue

And 26880 above bears would become nervous and how they would react will give further clues

25390 to 26880 is too and fro

Each day one would win over the other

And some days nobody

Most of the days nobody knows who is winning or losing

Larger picture mindset would give some clue

If 25390 not taken off for further 35 days, next year is a biggest opportunity for a sometime would occur

If 28600 not taken off by March or April next year, next year is a biggest opportunity for sometime

Sagar U.S