BANKNIFTY BLACK SWAN CURIOSITY FROM NOV 5TH 2018-NOV 5TH 2019- part 2

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Disclaimer – This curiosity is for my learning, it’s not a prediction, to be honest – I just want to check how my prediction /intuitions works!

Do follow your advisor and have your own opinion!

BNF trading @ 25660 now at 11 am, 5th Nov 2018

My illusion says “27000” is the magic number for the next 1 year

  1. Extreme correction for bnf would be up to 14-17% in the first phase

Second phase 19-23 %, from there on I don’t know

By the way, I don’t know whether there would be a correction in the first place?

if I am on the bear side from today levels i.e  stop loss of 5 %

however, if we get an opportunity around 26400-26800, that would be an ideal place to be with bears camp

stop loss would be then 2-4  % fo the return of 14-17 % -19-23%

For that strategy, I want bnf too go up from today and make highs till 26500-27000-27500-28000, but bnf should not close above 26880 for at least 2 months!

Markets are not one side, so I am also not on one side, I have another black swan ready 

2. To be bullish, I want BNF to close above 27280 for at least 2-3 months, by doing so

I can expect bulls to move at least 9- 12-15 % from 27280, keep a stop loss @ 2 %

 

But, this is not how  markets operate,bnf would rise and fall and fall and rise and rise and fall and rise and rise and rise and fall and fall and huge fall

Confusing right, that’s how markets operate

simple conclusion

the tape as of today is giving bears have an upper hand, as it is below 27000, but anytime bulls can have the upper hand

what’s my strategy – this is my Diwali black swan – happy to be wrong and also correct

if I am correct -it’s pure luck

if I am wrong – proves me markets and humans can’t be predicted!

If BNF closes below 25390 for some days I would turn bearish side, and  below 24660,  close for some days- confirmation markets would crash an unexpected time

IF BNF closes above 26330 for some day, i would turn bullish and above 27280 close for some days – confirmation markets would start upwards move

Another black swan is, markets may trade in a range between 23000-26000

Breakout of either would provide 7-9 % returns

Last black swan is it would trade in a range of 24660-25390-26330-27280

already it has touched 24660- now as of today trading at 25660 and has crossed the second level too -will it touch 3rd levels or it won’t I don’t know

One black swan is, have a huge payoff opportunity

Sagar U.S

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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