MY BANK NIFTY Curiosity or foolishness? Part 1

First, let me discuss Bank Nifty October Expiry Flashback

Later, let me share about last year learning or last few years or what to expect next year or next few years!  (Part 2 )

Disclaimer-  I may be wrong -or maybe right – if I am right it’s luck if I am wrong -then it’s my plain foolishness

henceforth, do follow your analysis or your advisor, this is my imagination on my BFF “BANKNIFTY ”

https://ussagar.wordpress.com/2018/10/01/banknifty-october-2018-monthly-plan/

This was my plan for the month of  October, which I had written on October 1st, 2018

let me do a fact-check, what Mr. Market has done – by doing so, I am going to learn my mistakes going forward

BNF made a high of 25915 & low of 24240 for the October expiry

On a closing basis, it was 24443 and 25589

25040 was the major number both bulls and bears were trying to breakout either sides

This month, there were huge gaps in both upside and downside, but no follow thru

By the way, markets are always random, unique – there is no pattern!

But one clue is certain, markets are in a downtrend, but nobody knows when the downtrend reverses ,downtrend continues, upwards starts, or is it a bigger uptrend correction!

Had mentioned at higher levels of 25820- onwards markets may reverse – by the way it happened!

It’s not my analysis or skill, it’s a luck!

Had mentioned 24330 has major support for markets – markets was almost there for few days and took a u-turn –  AGAIN- It’s not my analysis or skill, it’s a luck!

Have I implemented this, “NO” – Why?

lack of emotional intelligence & risk management & belief in myself!

But, the good part is I am learning from my mistakes and will implement my plan ! Being Positive!

So, What happened for last month in plain simple English

BNF started the series positive and moved around 2 %, bears then pulled back 4% odd towards their zone, bulls came back with vengeance and pulled around 6-7% to their zone, and the irony is, bears pulled back another 4-5% to their levels

Finally, in October series neither bulls or bears took the lead ( sample of just monthly expiry)

If, we look the big picture, let’s say from the last October (2017)to this October (2018)

Bulls started with a bang took 10% lead, bears came back with 12-14 % victory, bulls being bulls, came back strong with their 12-14% lost ground, now bears being bears had another story for bulls, they gained their 12-14 %, the best part is from last October this October

If someone had taken a vacation – both are at the same place, so who won or lost – to be honest, neither of them!

Now, let me take a few steps backward

let me analyze BNF from Feb 2017 to Sep 2017

Here, bulls were on another planet, they took a massive lead month on month with clearly around 20-23 % levels in 8 months, bears were able to take 3-5 %, with a huge difficulty!

Bulls were the clear winner!

Now let’s  go back few steps back from June 2016 to Jan 2017

Two Events (Brexit and NOV 8 2018)

From Brexit low, bulls took a lead of 15-18 %, November 8th impact took helped bears to take a lead of 8-10 %, finally took 6-8 % lead in JAN 2017

Now, we are on the edge of the last few steps or final last step at least!

From 2014 May to 2016 May

MODIJI won the elections, bulls won the markets till JAN 2015 – with a massive lead of 50-60 %, in that move bears were taking 8-10 %, but the lead of bulls was so massive, it looked tiny!

From Feb 2015-March 2016

Here bears had a slow winner around 40-50 %, but it was slow, bulls were winning 4-7 %

But March 2016, it was bulls all the way! April and May were tiff battle, but last day of may bulls again won!

Now, it’s confusing for me at least, let me read again and again and understand accordingly!

What’s this may lead to coming year say this November 2018-2019 November

First, events come and go, time will tell, which had the most impact, one thing is certain – I don’t know

As of Now, for just November, maybe for 10 days of  December series 2018

Bulls to win, need to above 25660, from there another 3-5 % upwards probability

Bears to win, need to be below 24350, from there another 3-5 % upwards probability

Today BANKNIFTY close is 24817

Probabilities Keeping bulls as the reference ( just for easy understanding )

deliberately all the point is “1”

  1. Bulls may drop 1-2 %,(24500) reverse from that and if above 25040-25660 for one  or two week , another 3-5 % ,i.e around 8-10 % return 25950-26330-26660

 

  1. Bulls may drop 1-2 %,i.s 24300  and keep falling up to 4 % (23900)  if 4 % holds for another one week, they may fall up to another 1-2 %,( 23300) i.e 6-8 % overall

 

  1. Bulls may increase up to 2-3 %, reverse from that and if closes below 24500 for one week or two, another 3-5 %, i.e around 8-10 % return 23300

 

  1. Bulls may increase up to 2-3 % (25600), from that another 1-2 % up ( 25950-26060), if it stays above that for a week or two 26660

 

However, elections buildup, US markets, and European Markets impact, Indian currency, oil and public image of opposition, and institutions (CBI, RBI, So on and forth )

Magic Number for bulls would be  “25370”-“25610: – _____ 25950-26330-26660

Magic Number forbears would be “24500”- “24250” -______23900-23600-23250

Small Secret – this analysis as nothing to make profit or loss!

The biggest secret is how much we buy and sell is what matters, that’s a different story altogether!

 

To be continued …..for next year probability predictions

Sagar U.S

All the best, Trade less from savings money

 

 

 

 

 

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